Brazil’s trade surplus in 2023 expected to reach US$ 72 billion
Despite the global economic slowdown, the Brazilian Foreign Trade Association, AEB, indicated that the largest economy in South America is projected to have a higher trade surplus in 2023. Next year’s positive result is expected to reach US$ 71,9 billion, which would be 14,3% higher than the US$ 62,9 billion this year.
The number would result from exports of US$ 325.1 billion and imports of US$ 253.2 billion. Exports should slip less than imports, increasing the Brazilian trade surplus. AEB estimates a 2.3% drop in shipments from Brazil and a more significant reduction, 6.2%,, in Brazilian purchases from abroad.
“A surplus of almost US$ 72 billion is a historic Brazilian record, but it is only a surplus of such a magnitude because the nominal drop of almost US$ 17 billion in imports will be greater than that of exports, of over US$ 7 billion,” said the chief executive of the AEB, José Augusto de Castro, in a release by the association.
Overall trade, the sum of imports and exports, is expected to reach US$ 578.391 billion in 2023, dipping 4% from 2022 calculations. The world expects a deceleration in commodity prices next year, which could further flatten trade percentages.
“Many factors could hamper the results of the trade balance, such as interest rate hikes in the United States and the European Union; China’s internal issues slowing its economic growth; the war between Russia and Ukraine; and how EU import tariffs are determined” said Castro.
Brazilian protein sales In related news, China has become global leader in beef imports, representing 30% of world demand. In the eleven months of 2022, according to China Customs, the country acquired 2.490 million tons of beef, of which Brazil supplied 987,000 tons, with a market share well over 40%.
Even without computing December imports, stats show that China has already imported the largest volume of beef protein in its history in spite of the logistic problems created by the Covid-19 pandemic.
It is important to note that the dominance of Brazilian protein in the Chinese market creates a perception of mutual dependence between both countries, which strengthens Brazil’s position in the event of a global economic slowdown and a consequent drop in Chinese imports.